Expressing certainty and uncertainty: indicative or subjunctive? in French

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Expressing certainty and uncertainty: indicative or subjunctive?

The subjunctive mode is used following expressions of:
•  possibility, doubt or incertitude, such as il est possible que and il est peu probable que
Il est peu probable qu’il fasse beau samedi faire, subjonctif présent. It’s unlikely that the weather will be nice on Saturday.
Il est possible que je sois absent demain être, subjonctif présent. It’s possible that I’ll be absent tomorrow.
•  Following an expression of certainty or definite action, such as il est fort probable que or il est très probable que, we use the indicatif (présent, futur or passé composé).
Il est fort probable que nous partirons à la montagne cet été partir, futur. It’s (highly) likely that we’ll go to the mountains this summer.
Il est très probable que ce panda s’est échappé du zoo. It’s (very) likely that this panda has escaped the zoo.
Note: The expression il est (fort) probable que can be followed by the indicatif if it expresses certainty, or by the subjunctive if it expresses a doubt or something uncertain.
Il est probable que je serai absent demain (indicatif) → It’s likely (that) I’ll be absent / gone tomorrow (almost certainly)
Il est probable que je sois absent demain (subjonctif) → It’s likely (that) I’ll be absent / gone tomorrow (not certainly)

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